Uttar Pradesh | SP seeks firm handshake

For much of the past year, the relationship between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress seemed fraught, with differences over parliamentary strategy, coordination within the INDIA bloc, the broader direction of Opposition politics all playing their part. Surprising, because, together, the two parties had delivered one of the biggest shocks of the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Uttar Pradesh, winning 43 seats (out of a total 80), sharply reducing the BJP’s tally in a state considered one of its strongest fortresses.

The June 8 meeting of the Opposition INDIA bloc in Delhi appears to have reset the relationship. The timing is significant. UP goes to the polls in less than a year in 2027. Beyond the numbers, the 2024 results had shown that the alliance could consolidate anti-BJP votes across communities that had often voted at cross-purposes previously. With six seats, it had also restored a degree of relevance to the Congress in UP after years of decline, while giving the SP a broader coalition than it could have assembled on its own.

WALKING THE TALK

The alliance talks acquired some urgency after reports that the ruling Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government might advance the elections to November-December this year. This was reflected in SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s comment on June 14. Speaking to reporters at his home base Mainpuri, he painted a dire scenario: “If the BJP wins both the 2027 UP election and the next Lok Sabha poll, then these elections could be the last in the country.”

Earlier, alliance concerns were reportedly thrashed out during discussions among INDIA bloc partners. Akhilesh’s grouse was apparently the national party’s lack of enthusiasm in projecting its regional partners even as the latter was doing all it could to bolster the Congress in the alliance. The remarks reflected a broader sentiment among several regional parties that Opposition unity can succeed only if Congress balances its national ambitions with coalition management.

GROUND REALITIES

But messaging from the top leadership aside, the picture on the ground remains complicated. Part of that caution comes from history. The SP and Congress first attempted a major alliance during the 2017 UP assembly election. Akhilesh and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi campaigned together, with the focus on youthful leadership. The experiment ended in a crushing defeat. SP won just 47 seats, Congress 7, while the BJP swept the state with 312 of the 403 seats.

Leaders in both parties later acknowledged the alliance suffered from poor coordination at the grassroots level. While the top leadership shared platforms, the local cadre often remained reluctant partners and failed to transfer votes effectively. Unable to overcome their differences, both parties fought the polls separately in 2022—leading to another rout where the Congress was reduced to two seats and the SP ended up with 111—before the rapprochement in 2024.

An alliance, then, is something both sides need. The SP remains by far the strongest Opposition force in UP and will likely contest the majority of seats. The Congress, however, has more leverage than it had before 2024. Its renewed visibility in parts of the state will also bolster its case.

A CASE OF HICCUPS

Meanwhile, another variable could complicate the Opposition arithmetic. Sections within the Congress have floated the idea of engaging with the Bahujan Samaj Party and its mercurial leader Mayawati as part of a broader anti-BJP effort. This is in complete variance with the SP’s efforts to create a Pichhda (backward classes), Dalit, and Alpsankhyak (minorities) or PDA alliance of its own, and could create tensions.

The alliance is also taking on a BJP regime that still seems to be on a strong wicket. Yogi continues to be popular in surveys, the party has the strongest organisational network in the country and, as the election in West Bengal has shown, it is willing to do whatever it takes to ring in a favourable result.

Which is why time is of the essence. 2024 showed that Opposition unity can produce electoral gains in UP. The challenge for the SP-Congress is to make sure the alliance has enough steel to withstand the pressures of a full-scale assembly election, where local rivalries and seat-sharing disputes tend to muddle matters much more than in a general election.