Amid ethanol demands, El Nino to strain India's sugar exports for years
A strengthening El Nino could reduce India's sugarcane output by weakening monsoon rains, raising concerns over sugar production, domestic supplies and future exports.
A strengthening El Nino weather pattern is raising concerns for India's sugar industry, with traders and industry officials warning that the country may remain largely absent from the global sugar export market for several years if sugar production comes under pressure, news agency Reuters reported.
India, the world's second-largest sugar exporter, is closely monitoring the development of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean.
El Nino is a climate phenomenon caused by the periodic warming in the Pacific Ocean and influences weather patterns around the world. In India, El Nino has often been linked to weaker monsoon rainfall and hotter conditions, both of which can affect agricultural output.
This year, the phenomenon arrived in June and has worried meteorologists around the globe with its growing strength and potentially extreme implications.
WILL EL NINO IMPACT SUGARCANE?
El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. Although it develops far from India, it can affect the southwest monsoon, which provides nearly 75% of the country's annual rainfall.
This is particularly important for sugarcane, a crop that requires large amounts of water throughout its growing season.
If monsoon rainfall falls short in major sugar-producing states, cane yields could decline and reduce overall sugar production.
According to industry estimates cited by news agency Reuters, India's sugar output is expected to remain below domestic demand this season. Production is projected at around 27.9 million metric tonnes, while annual consumption is estimated at roughly 28.5 million tonnes.
This comes just a month after India paused sugar exports until September 30, 2026, to control domestic food inflation.
WEATHER REMAIN UNPREDICTABLE
The concerns come as India is also increasing ethanol production from sugarcane, leaving less sugar available for other uses.
However, industry experts have said that weather conditions remain the most important factor determining future supplies.
Previous El Nino years have been associated with below-normal rainfall and agricultural disruptions in parts of India. With the current event continuing to strengthen, meteorologists are closely tracking its potential impact on the monsoon and crop production.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also forecast a weak monsoon this year, with rains expected to be below-normal.
While it is still too early to know exactly how strong the 2026 El Nino will become, its evolution over the coming months could have major implications for sugarcane cultivation.
For now, the focus remains on the Pacific Ocean, where warming waters are providing an early signal that weather conditions may become more challenging for one of India's most important agricultural sectors.
A strengthening El Nino weather pattern is raising concerns for India's sugar industry, with traders and industry officials warning that the country may remain largely absent from the global sugar export market for several years if sugar production comes under pressure, news agency Reuters reported.
India, the world's second-largest sugar exporter, is closely monitoring the development of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean.
El Nino is a climate phenomenon caused by the periodic warming in the Pacific Ocean and influences weather patterns around the world. In India, El Nino has often been linked to weaker monsoon rainfall and hotter conditions, both of which can affect agricultural output.
This year, the phenomenon arrived in June and has worried meteorologists around the globe with its growing strength and potentially extreme implications.
WILL EL NINO IMPACT SUGARCANE?
El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. Although it develops far from India, it can affect the southwest monsoon, which provides nearly 75% of the country's annual rainfall.
This is particularly important for sugarcane, a crop that requires large amounts of water throughout its growing season.
If monsoon rainfall falls short in major sugar-producing states, cane yields could decline and reduce overall sugar production.
According to industry estimates cited by news agency Reuters, India's sugar output is expected to remain below domestic demand this season. Production is projected at around 27.9 million metric tonnes, while annual consumption is estimated at roughly 28.5 million tonnes.
This comes just a month after India paused sugar exports until September 30, 2026, to control domestic food inflation.
WEATHER REMAIN UNPREDICTABLE
The concerns come as India is also increasing ethanol production from sugarcane, leaving less sugar available for other uses.
However, industry experts have said that weather conditions remain the most important factor determining future supplies.
Previous El Nino years have been associated with below-normal rainfall and agricultural disruptions in parts of India. With the current event continuing to strengthen, meteorologists are closely tracking its potential impact on the monsoon and crop production.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also forecast a weak monsoon this year, with rains expected to be below-normal.
While it is still too early to know exactly how strong the 2026 El Nino will become, its evolution over the coming months could have major implications for sugarcane cultivation.
For now, the focus remains on the Pacific Ocean, where warming waters are providing an early signal that weather conditions may become more challenging for one of India's most important agricultural sectors.
