Not just El Nino: What made June 2026 third driest in 100 years? IMD answers
The IMD said a mix of the MJO, missing Bay low-pressure systems, Pacific typhoons and El Nino dried up June rainfall. It said early July could bring broader rain as fresh systems form and the monsoon trough shifts.
India experienced one of its driest Junes in more than a century this year, with rainfall ending nearly 40% below normal.
While the delayed southwest monsoon was evident on the ground, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says a combination of global and regional weather phenomena worked together to suppress rainfall across the country.
IMD outlined four major factors behind the exceptionally dry month.
WHAT DRIED JUNE 2026 RAINFALL OVER INDIA?
The biggest contributor was the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large-scale pulse of clouds and rainfall that travels around the tropics every 30 to 60 days. During much of June, the MJO remained in phases 8 and 1, which are considered unfavourable for monsoon activity over India.
When the MJO is in these phases, atmospheric conditions suppress cloud formation over the Indian Ocean, resulting in weaker rainfall.
Another major setback was the complete absence of low-pressure systems (LPS) over the Bay of Bengal during June. These weather systems act as the monsoon's engine, transporting vast amounts of moisture inland and producing widespread rainfall across central and northern India.
According to the IMD, not a single low-pressure system formed during the month, an unusually rare occurrence that significantly weakened the seasonal rains.
The IMD also pointed to unusually active typhoon activity over the western Pacific Ocean. While several tropical cyclones developed, most of them moved north-northwest instead of westward.
This altered atmospheric circulation and reduced the likelihood of low-pressure systems forming over the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal, further weakening India's monsoon.
Adding to the problem was the emergence of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is characterised by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which weakens the monsoon circulation by disrupting global wind patterns.
Historically, many drought years in India have coincided with El Nino events, and the IMD said its development negatively affected rainfall throughout June.
Scientists also noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remained in a neutral phase. A positive IOD often helps offset the adverse effects of El Nio by enhancing moisture flow towards India. This year, however, the neutral IOD failed to provide that support, allowing El Nio's influence to dominate.
Despite the poor start, the IMD expects monsoon activity to improve during early July as fresh low-pressure systems develop over the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon trough shifts closer to its normal position.
These changes are expected to bring widespread rainfall across central, western and northern India, offering hope that the rainfall deficit built up during June can begin to narrow in the weeks ahead.
India experienced one of its driest Junes in more than a century this year, with rainfall ending nearly 40% below normal.
While the delayed southwest monsoon was evident on the ground, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says a combination of global and regional weather phenomena worked together to suppress rainfall across the country.
IMD outlined four major factors behind the exceptionally dry month.
WHAT DRIED JUNE 2026 RAINFALL OVER INDIA?
The biggest contributor was the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large-scale pulse of clouds and rainfall that travels around the tropics every 30 to 60 days. During much of June, the MJO remained in phases 8 and 1, which are considered unfavourable for monsoon activity over India.
When the MJO is in these phases, atmospheric conditions suppress cloud formation over the Indian Ocean, resulting in weaker rainfall.
Another major setback was the complete absence of low-pressure systems (LPS) over the Bay of Bengal during June. These weather systems act as the monsoon's engine, transporting vast amounts of moisture inland and producing widespread rainfall across central and northern India.
According to the IMD, not a single low-pressure system formed during the month, an unusually rare occurrence that significantly weakened the seasonal rains.
The IMD also pointed to unusually active typhoon activity over the western Pacific Ocean. While several tropical cyclones developed, most of them moved north-northwest instead of westward.
This altered atmospheric circulation and reduced the likelihood of low-pressure systems forming over the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal, further weakening India's monsoon.
Adding to the problem was the emergence of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is characterised by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which weakens the monsoon circulation by disrupting global wind patterns.
Historically, many drought years in India have coincided with El Nino events, and the IMD said its development negatively affected rainfall throughout June.
Scientists also noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remained in a neutral phase. A positive IOD often helps offset the adverse effects of El Nio by enhancing moisture flow towards India. This year, however, the neutral IOD failed to provide that support, allowing El Nio's influence to dominate.
Despite the poor start, the IMD expects monsoon activity to improve during early July as fresh low-pressure systems develop over the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon trough shifts closer to its normal position.
These changes are expected to bring widespread rainfall across central, western and northern India, offering hope that the rainfall deficit built up during June can begin to narrow in the weeks ahead.
