Alberta votes to remain in Canada, in boost to PM Carney amid trade war with US

Alberta voters have rejected a proposal to begin a process towards leaving Canada, giving Prime Minister Mark Carney a win in his campaign for unity amid a trade war with the US and President Donald Trump’s annexation threats.

Unofficial results from Elections Alberta showed 76% supporting remaining in Canada and close to 24% backing the separation process, with more than 1.5 million votes counted.

The margin was decisive. But separatist leaders say they will keep campaigning, leaving Premier Danielle Smith facing divisions within her own party over Alberta’s future.

WHAT DID ALBERTA VOTE ON?

Monday’s nonbinding referendum asked whether Alberta should move towards a future binding vote on separation. It was not a direct vote to leave Canada.

CBC News projected a win for the “remain” side late Monday, when about a third of votes had been counted. The margin remained broadly similar as counting progressed.

“Albertans made a clear choice,” Carney said. “They chose unity, to build together, and to take care of each other. Above all, Albertans chose Canada.”

Voters also answered nine other nonbinding questions on immigration, access to provincial services such as healthcare and education, and voter identification requirements.

WHY DO SOME ALBERTANS WANT TO LEAVE?

The separatist campaign led by the Alberta Prosperity Project centres on Alberta’s energy wealth and a longstanding grievance: that the province gives more to Canada than it gets back.

Campaigners argue that Alberta supports poorer provinces while federal policies and bureaucracy hold back its economy. They say independence would allow it to retain more of its wealth and control its development.

Alberta holds the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves. It is also a conservative stronghold where resentment towards Ottawa has long shaped politics, though support for independence has traditionally remained limited.

Former premier Jason Kenney said separatist parties once attracted only 1% or 2% of the vote. Anger over Covid-19 restrictions helped mobilise activists who later embraced separation, he said.

Even before Monday’s vote, pollsters and analysts had considered a separatist victory unlikely. Surveys indicated that about a third of residents supported holding a future separation referendum.

WHY DID ALBERTA PREMIER CALL FOR REFERENDUM?

Smith opposed independence but faced pressure from separatists within her governing United Conservative Party.

Announcing the referendum in May, she said it was time to establish where Albertans stood and move on.

She welcomed the early results, saying: “Albertans have voted for a stronger Alberta in a united Canada.” She said she would address the province on Tuesday evening about the outcome and its next steps.

The vote gives Smith a clear result against pursuing separation. It may not settle the fight within her party.

Jeff Rath of the Alberta Prosperity Project has called for her removal as leader and said the UCP could split, potentially creating a new pro-independence party.

WHY DOES THE RESULT MATTER TO CARNEY?

Trump’s trade war and comments about making Canada the 51st US state gave Alberta’s vote significance beyond the province. The result strengthens Carney’s appeal for Canadians to face that pressure together.

“Vote like Canada’s future depends on it, because it does,” he told a rally in Edmonton on Friday.

At another rally in Calgary, he warned that voting to leave would be “a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division."

Carney, who grew up mostly in Alberta, acknowledged that residents had often felt overlooked by Ottawa. He pointed to his government’s approval of a proposed pipeline and said the province was critical to reducing Canada’s dependence on the US.

After the result, he called for faster efforts to diversify trade, develop major infrastructure and make Canada a global energy powerhouse, with Alberta at its centre.

The separation campaign had also raised concerns about US involvement. Following reports of meetings between US officials and separatist representatives, Carney urged Washington to respect Canadian sovereignty.

The Financial Times reported that separatist leaders had met US officials in Washington three times since the previous spring. Downplaying the meetings, a White House official told Axios that officials met various civil society groups and had offered no support or commitments.

DOES THIS END THE SEPARATION CAMPAIGN?

Keith Wilson, a leader of the movement, argued that the early numbers showed a substantial share of Albertans wanted the province to be treated better.

“We’re not going anywhere,” Rath said as the results came in. “We’ve dominated the conversation in the last year. We’ve been educating Albertans on the benefits of independence, and we’re going to continue moving forward.”

First Nations groups, whose land treaties with Ottawa predate Alberta’s creation, have also opposed separation. CBC reported strong voter turnout in areas serving these Indigenous communities.

An Angus Reid poll released on October 16 found that 62% of Albertans believed the separatist movement would never end.

Voters have rejected the proposal for now, but separatists plan to keep pushing through provincial politics, keeping the debate alive.