Why Datia bypoll is Mohan Yadav's most-critical electoral test since becoming CM
A victory will strengthen Mohan Yadav's position in the BJP whereas a defeat could have the party old guard gunning for him
Three assembly by-elections—Amarwara, Vijaypur and Vidisha—have been held since Yadav took charge as chief minister in 2023. The first two polls were held in 2024 because incumbent Congress MLAs Kamlesh Shah and Ram Niwas Rawat switched sides. The Vidisha bypoll the same year was forced by the resignation of Shivraj Singh Chouhan upon his switch to Parliament as a Lok Sabha MP.
The outcome of the Vidisha bypoll was a foregone conclusion for the BJP, but the other two seats were a mixed bag for Yadav. While the Congress won Vijaypur, Kamlesh Shah got elected from Amarwara on a BJP ticket.
Hemant Khandelwal was appointed BJP state president in July 2025 and is broadly considered close to Yadav. The outcome of the Datia by-election is the first test of the duo’s electoral prowess as a team.
The biggest surprise has been the BJP denying the Datia ticket to former home minister Narottam Mishra and nominating Ashutosh Tiwari instead. The decision is thought to have the backing of Yadav, and the chief minister’s challenge has been to ensure Mishra doesn’t damage the prospects of the party candidate.
After an initial round of protests, Mishra loyalists seem to have fallen in line and are campaigning for the official BJP candidate. Multiple cases were registered against BJP workers and leaders who protested against the denial of ticket to Mishra. He was then called to Bhopal and after a meeting with Yadav and Khandelwal announced he would campaign for Tiwari.
Mishra’s involvement in the electioneering is, however, being watched with interest. In the early days of the campaign, Mishra strongly protested about police cases being registered against his loyalists. At one election meeting, he sobbed on stage while speaking about the denial of ticket to him. Opposition leaders suggest Mishra may not have yet instructed his loyalists on how to vote, thus keeping the contest very real.
The Congress has fielded Ghanshyam Singh, a former MLA and Datia ex-royal. He has won the seat twice—in 1993 and 2003. While Singh does have a local standing, the Congress is concerned about Azad Samaj Party candidate Damodar Yadav. He has been attacking the BJP and Congress on caste grounds. Many believe Damodar will damage the Congress’s prospects by securing a chunk of the 40,000-strong Scheduled Caste votes. Others feel he will also damage the BJP’s chances by securing some OBC votes, especially from the Yadav community that numbers over 10,000.
The Datia seat fell vacant as Rajendra Bharti, who had defeated Mishra in 2023, resigned after being convicted in a case. The bypoll result will be announced on August 3. A BJP victory will strengthen CM Yadav’s position within the state and the party, notwithstanding allegations around his family land holdings, whereas a defeat could have the BJP old guard gunning for him.
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Three assembly by-elections—Amarwara, Vijaypur and Vidisha—have been held since Yadav took charge as chief minister in 2023. The first two polls were held in 2024 because incumbent Congress MLAs Kamlesh Shah and Ram Niwas Rawat switched sides. The Vidisha bypoll the same year was forced by the resignation of Shivraj Singh Chouhan upon his switch to Parliament as a Lok Sabha MP.
The outcome of the Vidisha bypoll was a foregone conclusion for the BJP, but the other two seats were a mixed bag for Yadav. While the Congress won Vijaypur, Kamlesh Shah got elected from Amarwara on a BJP ticket.
Hemant Khandelwal was appointed BJP state president in July 2025 and is broadly considered close to Yadav. The outcome of the Datia by-election is the first test of the duo’s electoral prowess as a team.
The biggest surprise has been the BJP denying the Datia ticket to former home minister Narottam Mishra and nominating Ashutosh Tiwari instead. The decision is thought to have the backing of Yadav, and the chief minister’s challenge has been to ensure Mishra doesn’t damage the prospects of the party candidate.
After an initial round of protests, Mishra loyalists seem to have fallen in line and are campaigning for the official BJP candidate. Multiple cases were registered against BJP workers and leaders who protested against the denial of ticket to Mishra. He was then called to Bhopal and after a meeting with Yadav and Khandelwal announced he would campaign for Tiwari.
Mishra’s involvement in the electioneering is, however, being watched with interest. In the early days of the campaign, Mishra strongly protested about police cases being registered against his loyalists. At one election meeting, he sobbed on stage while speaking about the denial of ticket to him. Opposition leaders suggest Mishra may not have yet instructed his loyalists on how to vote, thus keeping the contest very real.
The Congress has fielded Ghanshyam Singh, a former MLA and Datia ex-royal. He has won the seat twice—in 1993 and 2003. While Singh does have a local standing, the Congress is concerned about Azad Samaj Party candidate Damodar Yadav. He has been attacking the BJP and Congress on caste grounds. Many believe Damodar will damage the Congress’s prospects by securing a chunk of the 40,000-strong Scheduled Caste votes. Others feel he will also damage the BJP’s chances by securing some OBC votes, especially from the Yadav community that numbers over 10,000.
The Datia seat fell vacant as Rajendra Bharti, who had defeated Mishra in 2023, resigned after being convicted in a case. The bypoll result will be announced on August 3. A BJP victory will strengthen CM Yadav’s position within the state and the party, notwithstanding allegations around his family land holdings, whereas a defeat could have the BJP old guard gunning for him.
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Three assembly by-elections—Amarwara, Vijaypur and Vidisha—have been held since Yadav took charge as chief minister in 2023. The first two polls were held in 2024 because incumbent Congress MLAs Kamlesh Shah and Ram Niwas Rawat switched sides. The Vidisha bypoll the same year was forced by the resignation of Shivraj Singh Chouhan upon his switch to Parliament as a Lok Sabha MP.
The outcome of the Vidisha bypoll was a foregone conclusion for the BJP, but the other two seats were a mixed bag for Yadav. While the Congress won Vijaypur, Kamlesh Shah got elected from Amarwara on a BJP ticket.
Hemant Khandelwal was appointed BJP state president in July 2025 and is broadly considered close to Yadav. The outcome of the Datia by-election is the first test of the duo’s electoral prowess as a team.
The biggest surprise has been the BJP denying the Datia ticket to former home minister Narottam Mishra and nominating Ashutosh Tiwari instead. The decision is thought to have the backing of Yadav, and the chief minister’s challenge has been to ensure Mishra doesn’t damage the prospects of the party candidate.
After an initial round of protests, Mishra loyalists seem to have fallen in line and are campaigning for the official BJP candidate. Multiple cases were registered against BJP workers and leaders who protested against the denial of ticket to Mishra. He was then called to Bhopal and after a meeting with Yadav and Khandelwal announced he would campaign for Tiwari.
Mishra’s involvement in the electioneering is, however, being watched with interest. In the early days of the campaign, Mishra strongly protested about police cases being registered against his loyalists. At one election meeting, he sobbed on stage while speaking about the denial of ticket to him. Opposition leaders suggest Mishra may not have yet instructed his loyalists on how to vote, thus keeping the contest very real.
The Congress has fielded Ghanshyam Singh, a former MLA and Datia ex-royal. He has won the seat twice—in 1993 and 2003. While Singh does have a local standing, the Congress is concerned about Azad Samaj Party candidate Damodar Yadav. He has been attacking the BJP and Congress on caste grounds. Many believe Damodar will damage the Congress’s prospects by securing a chunk of the 40,000-strong Scheduled Caste votes. Others feel he will also damage the BJP’s chances by securing some OBC votes, especially from the Yadav community that numbers over 10,000.
The Datia seat fell vacant as Rajendra Bharti, who had defeated Mishra in 2023, resigned after being convicted in a case. The bypoll result will be announced on August 3. A BJP victory will strengthen CM Yadav’s position within the state and the party, notwithstanding allegations around his family land holdings, whereas a defeat could have the BJP old guard gunning for him.
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