El Nino burning Pacific Ocean: Temperatures unusually high, India on high alert
NOAA data show the Pacific's Nino 3.4 region is significantly warmer than last year, strengthening El Nino concerns that could affect India's monsoon rainfall.
The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed significantly compared with the same period last year, offering new evidence that heat is building in one of the world's most important climate regions as El Nino rages.
Daily sea surface temperature data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show the Nino 3.4 area, a specific patch of the central Pacific Ocean used by scientists to track global El Nino and La Nina climate patterns, got warmer in 2026.
The region remained warmer on every day between June 1 and July 4 in 2026 than during the corresponding period in 2025, with the gap widening to 1.64°C by July 4, until when the data is available.
Furthermore, the temperature difference between 2026 and 2025 widened from 1.06°C on June 1 to 1.64°C by July 4, marking an increase of nearly 55% and highlighting the rate at which oceans are warming.
The comparison comes as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for July, citing the strengthening influence of El Nino over the equatorial Pacific after India recorded its driest June in more than a century.
OCEANS ARE WARMING
NOAA's data showed that the Nino 3.4 region warmed from 28.9°C on June 1 to 29.23°C on July 4 this year. During the same period in 2025, temperatures instead cooled from 27.84°C to 27.59°C.
The highest temperature this year was 29.41°C on June 19, while the lowest was 28.90°C on June 1.
In 2025, the highest reading was 27.84°C on June 1-2 and the lowest was 27.52°C on June 28-29.
The sustained temperatures above 29°C are particularly noteworthy because warmer ocean surfaces release more heat and moisture into the atmosphere, influencing rainfall patterns and atmospheric circulation far beyond the Pacific.
El Nino develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific remain warmer than normal for several months. The extra ocean heat changes atmospheric circulation, often weakening the winds that help drive India's monsoon.
While a single month of warm water does not define an El Nino event, NOAA and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) consider persistent warming in this region a key indicator.
Oceans are also warming because they absorb more than 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions, making marine heatwaves and unusually warm sea surface temperatures more frequent.
CONSEQUENCES FOR INDIA
For India, the implications are significant.
The southwest monsoon provides about 70% of the country's annual rainfall and supports agriculture, reservoirs and drinking water supplies.
A stronger El Nino often raises the risk of below-normal monsoon rainfall, heatwaves and uneven rain distribution, although other climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and short-term weather systems also influence the final outcome.
The IMD has already projected July rainfall to remain below normal over most of the country, even though spells of widespread rain are expected in early July.
The projection comes after India witnessed its fifth-driest June since 1901, as monsoon was delayed across several regions, causing rain deficits and heat conditions to linger longer than they usually do.
The situation has also prompted Prime Minister Narenda Modi to instruct ministries to prepare contingency plans for rain deficits.
Scientists will continue monitoring the Nino 3.4 region through the coming months, as sustained warming could shape the course of the monsoon and increase the likelihood of weather extremes across India.
The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed significantly compared with the same period last year, offering new evidence that heat is building in one of the world's most important climate regions as El Nino rages.
Daily sea surface temperature data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show the Nino 3.4 area, a specific patch of the central Pacific Ocean used by scientists to track global El Nino and La Nina climate patterns, got warmer in 2026.
The region remained warmer on every day between June 1 and July 4 in 2026 than during the corresponding period in 2025, with the gap widening to 1.64°C by July 4, until when the data is available.
Furthermore, the temperature difference between 2026 and 2025 widened from 1.06°C on June 1 to 1.64°C by July 4, marking an increase of nearly 55% and highlighting the rate at which oceans are warming.
The comparison comes as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for July, citing the strengthening influence of El Nino over the equatorial Pacific after India recorded its driest June in more than a century.
OCEANS ARE WARMING
NOAA's data showed that the Nino 3.4 region warmed from 28.9°C on June 1 to 29.23°C on July 4 this year. During the same period in 2025, temperatures instead cooled from 27.84°C to 27.59°C.
The highest temperature this year was 29.41°C on June 19, while the lowest was 28.90°C on June 1.
In 2025, the highest reading was 27.84°C on June 1-2 and the lowest was 27.52°C on June 28-29.
The sustained temperatures above 29°C are particularly noteworthy because warmer ocean surfaces release more heat and moisture into the atmosphere, influencing rainfall patterns and atmospheric circulation far beyond the Pacific.
El Nino develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific remain warmer than normal for several months. The extra ocean heat changes atmospheric circulation, often weakening the winds that help drive India's monsoon.
While a single month of warm water does not define an El Nino event, NOAA and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) consider persistent warming in this region a key indicator.
Oceans are also warming because they absorb more than 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions, making marine heatwaves and unusually warm sea surface temperatures more frequent.
CONSEQUENCES FOR INDIA
For India, the implications are significant.
The southwest monsoon provides about 70% of the country's annual rainfall and supports agriculture, reservoirs and drinking water supplies.
A stronger El Nino often raises the risk of below-normal monsoon rainfall, heatwaves and uneven rain distribution, although other climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and short-term weather systems also influence the final outcome.
The IMD has already projected July rainfall to remain below normal over most of the country, even though spells of widespread rain are expected in early July.
The projection comes after India witnessed its fifth-driest June since 1901, as monsoon was delayed across several regions, causing rain deficits and heat conditions to linger longer than they usually do.
The situation has also prompted Prime Minister Narenda Modi to instruct ministries to prepare contingency plans for rain deficits.
Scientists will continue monitoring the Nino 3.4 region through the coming months, as sustained warming could shape the course of the monsoon and increase the likelihood of weather extremes across India.
