Iran's war unity masks fierce split over US talks and postwar future
Iran's leaders are publicly backing a hardline war posture even as they clash over renewed talks with Washington. The dispute could shape sanctions relief, domestic stability and the country's postwar balance of power.
Iran's leadership is showing broad unity in the war strategy of holding firm and signalling that the country can endure more than the United States and its allies. But behind that common line, there are sharp differences over what the endgame should be and what Iran's postwar future may look like.
Ultra-hardliners in the Paydari movement oppose any talks with Washington and are pushing for total victory. On the other side, those backing President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is also Iran's chief negotiator, see military pressure as a way to secure a negotiated deal with the US, while also responding to the economic strain of the war and social change at home.
Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Ghalibaf, wrote on his Telegram channel on Thursday: "Negotiation is a political tool and a complement to military action to force the enemy to a point of compulsion and extract real concessions." The rivalry within the leadership has drawn attention to a wider struggle for influence after the war. A key question is where the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, stands. He was reportedly injured in the strike that killed his father in the opening minutes of the war on February 28, remains in hiding, and both camps have claimed his support.
Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian received a boost when the ceasefire deal reached with the US in April won strong backing in Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Twelve of its 13 members supported it, including senior figures in the Revolutionary Guard and the military. The only vote against it is widely believed to have come from Saeed Jalili, the most prominent face of the Paydari movement.
But the ceasefire fell apart as both sides traded strikes and Iran pushed for control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas. Iran was also angered that financial commitments under the deal, including the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets, did not materialise, and the American blockade has now returned. With the deal producing no gains, Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said there is "no serious division" in the leadership over how to respond. He said they believe US President Donald Trump "only understands the language of force, and therefore, they would have to gain the upper hand in order to compel him to deliver".
The funeral of slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei earlier this month appeared to underline the strength of the ultra-hardline camp. Crowds called for revenge against the US and Israel. Videos showed mourners in Tehran welcoming Jalili, while Pezeshkian at one point faced insults and cries of "Death to the compromiser!" The hardliners have used nightly rallies and state television, IRIB, to build opposition to negotiations, presenting Iran as moving towards total victory and attacking those seen as ready to compromise with the US.
State television cut short a June 30 live broadcast with Ghalibaf as he spoke about talks with Washington. Earlier this month, it also stopped broadcasting a speech by Pezeshkian to businessmen seconds after he said the elder Khamenei had allowed renewed US talks before his death. Pezeshkian and his camp have pushed back, saying IRIB is dividing the country during wartime. The president said the broadcaster was making it seem as if "the military are on one side, and the government is on another side". Last month, the president's media office accused state television of "censoring" the president and other government leaders, pointing to an open rift.
The hardliners have also tried to assert influence in other ways. In recent weeks, authorities shut cafes in central Tehran that had remained popular during the ceasefire. Videos on Iranian social media showed many women there flouting mandatory veiling rules, with crowds mingling freely. The closures were brief, but reformist cleric Mohamad Ali Abtahi said they showed that "religious extremist parties" were making their presence felt. Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins University said Jalili's supporters were a minority but remained influential: "They have a lot of money. They have a lot of power. They have put a lot of people in the bureaucracy" and built connections in the Revolutionary Guard.
The more pragmatic camp argues that keeping the country united during the war means responding to public anger over the economy as well as political and social repression. Iran's currency has continued to weaken, inflation has risen and unemployment has increased. A final deal with the US could bring major relief through the lifting of sanctions and the return of billions in assets.
There have also been small signs of impatience with the war. In July, more than 250 former lawmakers, clerics, professors and other public figures signed an anti-war petition warning about the cost of the conflict. "We believe that the overwhelming majority of the Iranian people want peace and the right to a decent life," it said. Others have objected to stepped-up executions of protesters after widespread anti-government protests in January. A leading reformist party that backed Pezeshkian's campaign said the war's domestic cost was "undermining internal social cohesion", drawing a rebuke from Tasnim, a news agency close to the Revolutionary Guard, which said that amounted to blaming Iran for a war started by the US.
In mid-July, Youssef Pezeshkian, the president's son and an influential adviser, posted messages on the need to balance realistic military goals with a weak economy. Referring to decades of sanctions and confrontation with the West, he said Iran has "been prevented from growing and has suffered greatly. It has become sick."
Both camps are also looking beyond the war because of the uncertainty created by the change at the top. Abtahi said Mojtaba Khamenei's actual views are still unclear. Some believe he could be more radical than his father, while others see a chance for moderate change. Abtahi said the supreme leader, given the power of the office, could act as a "brake" on more extreme factions, but warned that over time any confrontation with them could become more dangerous "if that brake isn't used". Overall, Iran's leaders appear united on showing strength for now, even as the struggle over negotiations, domestic policy and the country's direction after the war continues.
With PTI Inputs
Iran's leadership is showing broad unity in the war strategy of holding firm and signalling that the country can endure more than the United States and its allies. But behind that common line, there are sharp differences over what the endgame should be and what Iran's postwar future may look like.
Ultra-hardliners in the Paydari movement oppose any talks with Washington and are pushing for total victory. On the other side, those backing President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is also Iran's chief negotiator, see military pressure as a way to secure a negotiated deal with the US, while also responding to the economic strain of the war and social change at home.
Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Ghalibaf, wrote on his Telegram channel on Thursday: "Negotiation is a political tool and a complement to military action to force the enemy to a point of compulsion and extract real concessions." The rivalry within the leadership has drawn attention to a wider struggle for influence after the war. A key question is where the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, stands. He was reportedly injured in the strike that killed his father in the opening minutes of the war on February 28, remains in hiding, and both camps have claimed his support.
Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian received a boost when the ceasefire deal reached with the US in April won strong backing in Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Twelve of its 13 members supported it, including senior figures in the Revolutionary Guard and the military. The only vote against it is widely believed to have come from Saeed Jalili, the most prominent face of the Paydari movement.
But the ceasefire fell apart as both sides traded strikes and Iran pushed for control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas. Iran was also angered that financial commitments under the deal, including the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets, did not materialise, and the American blockade has now returned. With the deal producing no gains, Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said there is "no serious division" in the leadership over how to respond. He said they believe US President Donald Trump "only understands the language of force, and therefore, they would have to gain the upper hand in order to compel him to deliver".
The funeral of slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei earlier this month appeared to underline the strength of the ultra-hardline camp. Crowds called for revenge against the US and Israel. Videos showed mourners in Tehran welcoming Jalili, while Pezeshkian at one point faced insults and cries of "Death to the compromiser!" The hardliners have used nightly rallies and state television, IRIB, to build opposition to negotiations, presenting Iran as moving towards total victory and attacking those seen as ready to compromise with the US.
State television cut short a June 30 live broadcast with Ghalibaf as he spoke about talks with Washington. Earlier this month, it also stopped broadcasting a speech by Pezeshkian to businessmen seconds after he said the elder Khamenei had allowed renewed US talks before his death. Pezeshkian and his camp have pushed back, saying IRIB is dividing the country during wartime. The president said the broadcaster was making it seem as if "the military are on one side, and the government is on another side". Last month, the president's media office accused state television of "censoring" the president and other government leaders, pointing to an open rift.
The hardliners have also tried to assert influence in other ways. In recent weeks, authorities shut cafes in central Tehran that had remained popular during the ceasefire. Videos on Iranian social media showed many women there flouting mandatory veiling rules, with crowds mingling freely. The closures were brief, but reformist cleric Mohamad Ali Abtahi said they showed that "religious extremist parties" were making their presence felt. Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins University said Jalili's supporters were a minority but remained influential: "They have a lot of money. They have a lot of power. They have put a lot of people in the bureaucracy" and built connections in the Revolutionary Guard.
The more pragmatic camp argues that keeping the country united during the war means responding to public anger over the economy as well as political and social repression. Iran's currency has continued to weaken, inflation has risen and unemployment has increased. A final deal with the US could bring major relief through the lifting of sanctions and the return of billions in assets.
There have also been small signs of impatience with the war. In July, more than 250 former lawmakers, clerics, professors and other public figures signed an anti-war petition warning about the cost of the conflict. "We believe that the overwhelming majority of the Iranian people want peace and the right to a decent life," it said. Others have objected to stepped-up executions of protesters after widespread anti-government protests in January. A leading reformist party that backed Pezeshkian's campaign said the war's domestic cost was "undermining internal social cohesion", drawing a rebuke from Tasnim, a news agency close to the Revolutionary Guard, which said that amounted to blaming Iran for a war started by the US.
In mid-July, Youssef Pezeshkian, the president's son and an influential adviser, posted messages on the need to balance realistic military goals with a weak economy. Referring to decades of sanctions and confrontation with the West, he said Iran has "been prevented from growing and has suffered greatly. It has become sick."
Both camps are also looking beyond the war because of the uncertainty created by the change at the top. Abtahi said Mojtaba Khamenei's actual views are still unclear. Some believe he could be more radical than his father, while others see a chance for moderate change. Abtahi said the supreme leader, given the power of the office, could act as a "brake" on more extreme factions, but warned that over time any confrontation with them could become more dangerous "if that brake isn't used". Overall, Iran's leaders appear united on showing strength for now, even as the struggle over negotiations, domestic policy and the country's direction after the war continues.
With PTI Inputs
Iran's leadership is showing broad unity in the war strategy of holding firm and signalling that the country can endure more than the United States and its allies. But behind that common line, there are sharp differences over what the endgame should be and what Iran's postwar future may look like.
Ultra-hardliners in the Paydari movement oppose any talks with Washington and are pushing for total victory. On the other side, those backing President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is also Iran's chief negotiator, see military pressure as a way to secure a negotiated deal with the US, while also responding to the economic strain of the war and social change at home.
Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Ghalibaf, wrote on his Telegram channel on Thursday: "Negotiation is a political tool and a complement to military action to force the enemy to a point of compulsion and extract real concessions." The rivalry within the leadership has drawn attention to a wider struggle for influence after the war. A key question is where the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, stands. He was reportedly injured in the strike that killed his father in the opening minutes of the war on February 28, remains in hiding, and both camps have claimed his support.
Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian received a boost when the ceasefire deal reached with the US in April won strong backing in Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Twelve of its 13 members supported it, including senior figures in the Revolutionary Guard and the military. The only vote against it is widely believed to have come from Saeed Jalili, the most prominent face of the Paydari movement.
But the ceasefire fell apart as both sides traded strikes and Iran pushed for control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas. Iran was also angered that financial commitments under the deal, including the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets, did not materialise, and the American blockade has now returned. With the deal producing no gains, Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said there is "no serious division" in the leadership over how to respond. He said they believe US President Donald Trump "only understands the language of force, and therefore, they would have to gain the upper hand in order to compel him to deliver".
The funeral of slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei earlier this month appeared to underline the strength of the ultra-hardline camp. Crowds called for revenge against the US and Israel. Videos showed mourners in Tehran welcoming Jalili, while Pezeshkian at one point faced insults and cries of "Death to the compromiser!" The hardliners have used nightly rallies and state television, IRIB, to build opposition to negotiations, presenting Iran as moving towards total victory and attacking those seen as ready to compromise with the US.
State television cut short a June 30 live broadcast with Ghalibaf as he spoke about talks with Washington. Earlier this month, it also stopped broadcasting a speech by Pezeshkian to businessmen seconds after he said the elder Khamenei had allowed renewed US talks before his death. Pezeshkian and his camp have pushed back, saying IRIB is dividing the country during wartime. The president said the broadcaster was making it seem as if "the military are on one side, and the government is on another side". Last month, the president's media office accused state television of "censoring" the president and other government leaders, pointing to an open rift.
The hardliners have also tried to assert influence in other ways. In recent weeks, authorities shut cafes in central Tehran that had remained popular during the ceasefire. Videos on Iranian social media showed many women there flouting mandatory veiling rules, with crowds mingling freely. The closures were brief, but reformist cleric Mohamad Ali Abtahi said they showed that "religious extremist parties" were making their presence felt. Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins University said Jalili's supporters were a minority but remained influential: "They have a lot of money. They have a lot of power. They have put a lot of people in the bureaucracy" and built connections in the Revolutionary Guard.
The more pragmatic camp argues that keeping the country united during the war means responding to public anger over the economy as well as political and social repression. Iran's currency has continued to weaken, inflation has risen and unemployment has increased. A final deal with the US could bring major relief through the lifting of sanctions and the return of billions in assets.
There have also been small signs of impatience with the war. In July, more than 250 former lawmakers, clerics, professors and other public figures signed an anti-war petition warning about the cost of the conflict. "We believe that the overwhelming majority of the Iranian people want peace and the right to a decent life," it said. Others have objected to stepped-up executions of protesters after widespread anti-government protests in January. A leading reformist party that backed Pezeshkian's campaign said the war's domestic cost was "undermining internal social cohesion", drawing a rebuke from Tasnim, a news agency close to the Revolutionary Guard, which said that amounted to blaming Iran for a war started by the US.
In mid-July, Youssef Pezeshkian, the president's son and an influential adviser, posted messages on the need to balance realistic military goals with a weak economy. Referring to decades of sanctions and confrontation with the West, he said Iran has "been prevented from growing and has suffered greatly. It has become sick."
Both camps are also looking beyond the war because of the uncertainty created by the change at the top. Abtahi said Mojtaba Khamenei's actual views are still unclear. Some believe he could be more radical than his father, while others see a chance for moderate change. Abtahi said the supreme leader, given the power of the office, could act as a "brake" on more extreme factions, but warned that over time any confrontation with them could become more dangerous "if that brake isn't used". Overall, Iran's leaders appear united on showing strength for now, even as the struggle over negotiations, domestic policy and the country's direction after the war continues.
With PTI Inputs
