Israel exit polls show deadlock for Netanyahu, setting stage for coalition battle

Israel's election remained inconclusive on Tuesday, with exit polls showing opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot's bloc locked in a close contest with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp. Neither side was projected to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset, raising the prospect of prolonged coalition negotiations and another election.

The projections pointed to a setback for Netanyahu's governing alliance, although the deadlock could allow the country's longest-serving prime minister to remain in office in a caretaker capacity while parties attempt to form a government.

"The Israeli public has voted against Netanyahu's service as Israel's prime minister ... a worthy leader would have accepted the people's non-confidence and announced today his retirement from politics," Eisenkot told cheering supporters in Tel Aviv.

More than four hours after polling stations closed, supporters were still waiting for Netanyahu to address his Likud party headquarters in Jerusalem.

“We need to be patient, to wait. It’s too early to celebrate," Minister of Diaspora Affairs and Likud lawmaker Amichai Chikli told reporters. "One thing we know for sure. Those who said that Netanyahu is over celebrated too early. That is for sure.”

EXIT POLLS SHOW TIGHT RACE, ARAB PARTIES HOLD BALANCE

The three major Israeli television networks offered slightly different projections as the night progressed. Kan 11 and Channel 13 showed the rival blocs tied, while Channel 12 gave Netanyahu's Likud-led camp a narrow advantage. None projected either side winning a parliamentary majority.

Far-right religious parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were projected to win a combined 13 seats within Netanyahu's bloc.

Arab parties outside the two main camps could hold the balance of power. However, Eisenkot, head of the Yashar party and a former military chief, has all but ruled out forming a government with them, making it harder for him to assemble the numbers needed to take office.

Turnout reached 77.7%, Israel's Central Elections Committee said, the highest in more than two decades and around seven percentage points above the 2022 election.

Final results could take days to emerge. Israel's fragmented political system frequently leaves smaller parties decisive in coalition negotiations, which have stretched for weeks or months after previous elections. If neither camp can form a government, Israelis could be called back to the polls — a prospect Eisenkot opposes.

"In an election with such a high turnout it would be a mistake to go to another election," he said.

Tuesday's vote was the first national election since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, described the exit polls as a major defeat for Netanyahu's coalition but cautioned that Eisenkot had not secured a clear victory and that the final count could change the outcome.

OPPOSITION SAYS NETANYAHU'S BLOC HAS SUFFERED DEFEAT

Opposition leader Yair Lapid said the projections reflected a decisive rejection of Netanyahu's alliance.

“Don’t let anyone confuse you: the Netanyahu bloc has suffered a crushing defeat. This is a total collapse and the public has told them to go home,” Lapid said in a statement.

Eisenkot, 66, emerged as Netanyahu's strongest challenger, drawing on his military background while presenting himself as a centrist on domestic issues. He lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war.

He entered politics four years ago and joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after the October 2023 Hamas attack. Eight months later, he quit, criticising the prime minister's leadership.

Although Eisenkot has positioned himself as an alternative to Netanyahu and his far-right allies, he has retained a hardline stance on security. He opposes Palestinian statehood and has said Hamas' military wing must be destroyed or dismantled.

Eisenkot has also described Israel's Gaza campaign as a failure because Hamas remains in control. The war has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities.

Addressing Israel's defence establishment, Eisenkot said Netanyahu had lost public trust and warned against allowing the prime minister's political interests to take precedence over national security.

ARAB VOTERS TURN OUT IN LARGE NUMBERS

The headquarters of the Joint List, an alliance of several Arab parties, erupted in applause and whistles as the exit polls were announced, marking a significant night for turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel.

“We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here,” said Faten Gattas, a Joint List candidate, in a speech at the alliance's headquarters in Nazareth.

Candidates had hoped that strong Arab participation would give their parties a decisive role in preventing Netanyahu's coalition from returning to power. The alliance's potential influence, however, will depend on the final results and whether either major bloc can secure enough support to govern.

ELECTION TESTS NETANYAHU'S WARTIME RECORD

Voters went to the polls against the backdrop of the October 7 attacks, when Hamas killed around 1,200 people in Israel and took 251 hostages, followed by wars in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as conflict with Iran.

Netanyahu faced criticism over what was widely regarded as Israel's gravest security failure. He has defended his record by arguing that his government made Israel and the wider world safer by killing senior leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.

The policies of Netanyahu's right-wing coalition have fuelled domestic divisions and deepened Israel's international isolation. He has nevertheless portrayed himself as the leader best equipped to confront the country's adversaries.

Netanyahu, 77, has served as prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years and repeatedly survived political crises. His opponents have removed him from office only once since 2009, following four inconclusive elections in two years. He returned to power 18 months later.

He entered Tuesday's election facing longstanding corruption charges, which he denies, as well as continued criticism over the intelligence and security failures that allowed the October 7 attack to unfold.

With exit polls showing no clear winner, Netanyahu's political future will depend on the final count and the ability of rival camps to build a coalition capable of commanding a majority in parliament.