Reduction in rain likely over Central India from Thursday as monsoon shifts
The IMD has forecast a sharp reduction in rainfall over Central India from July 9 as active weather systems move north. The shift is expected to bring heavier rain to northern, eastern and north-eastern states, along with risks of flooding and disruption.
After days of widespread monsoon showers that helped slash India's seasonal rainfall deficit, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a significant reduction in rainfall activity over Central India from July 9 onwards as the active weather systems responsible for the wet spell begin moving north.
The change comes as a well-marked low-pressure area over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining southwest Uttar Pradesh persists and is expected to move north-northwestwards before recurving northeast towards Uttar Pradesh.
As the system shifts away from central India, rainfall is likely to decrease across Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and adjoining regions.
According to the IMD, the monsoon remains supported by several weather systems, including a seasonal trough extending from northwest Rajasthan to northeast Bangladesh, an offshore trough from south Gujarat to central Kerala, a trough stretching from the northeast Arabian Sea to Sikkim, a Western Disturbance over the western Himalayas, and an upper-air cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam.
While central India begins drying out, the focus of heavy rainfall is expected to shift towards northwest, eastern and northeastern India.
The IMD has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall, with extremely heavy rainfall at isolated locations, over West Madhya Pradesh on July 8, before rainfall intensity drops sharply from July 9. East Madhya Pradesh is expected to receive widespread rainfall until July 11, after which activity will become isolated.
Northwest India is likely to witness an active monsoon phase. Heavy rainfall has been forecast over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan over the next several days.
Uttarakhand is likely to experience very heavy rainfall on July 10, while East Uttar Pradesh may receive heavy to very heavy showers between July 10 and 12.
Delhi and the National Capital Region are expected to receive widespread rainfall between July 8 and 10, with isolated heavy showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds.
In eastern India, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim remain under an enhanced rainfall outlook. The IMD has warned of extremely heavy rainfall over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on July 8, while Bihar is likely to receive heavy rain through July 12.
The northeast is also expected to remain wet, with Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura forecast to receive widespread rainfall.
The IMD has also warned of thundersqualls with wind speeds of 50-70 kmph over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana and Karnataka, along with frequent lightning in several states.
The shifting rainfall pattern marks a transition in the monsoon's active phase, with the rain belt gradually migrating northward.
While central India is likely to see fewer showers after July 9, northern and eastern states should prepare for continued heavy rainfall, localized flooding, landslides in hilly regions and disruption due to thunderstorms over the coming week.
After days of widespread monsoon showers that helped slash India's seasonal rainfall deficit, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a significant reduction in rainfall activity over Central India from July 9 onwards as the active weather systems responsible for the wet spell begin moving north.
The change comes as a well-marked low-pressure area over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining southwest Uttar Pradesh persists and is expected to move north-northwestwards before recurving northeast towards Uttar Pradesh.
As the system shifts away from central India, rainfall is likely to decrease across Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and adjoining regions.
According to the IMD, the monsoon remains supported by several weather systems, including a seasonal trough extending from northwest Rajasthan to northeast Bangladesh, an offshore trough from south Gujarat to central Kerala, a trough stretching from the northeast Arabian Sea to Sikkim, a Western Disturbance over the western Himalayas, and an upper-air cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam.
While central India begins drying out, the focus of heavy rainfall is expected to shift towards northwest, eastern and northeastern India.
The IMD has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall, with extremely heavy rainfall at isolated locations, over West Madhya Pradesh on July 8, before rainfall intensity drops sharply from July 9. East Madhya Pradesh is expected to receive widespread rainfall until July 11, after which activity will become isolated.
Northwest India is likely to witness an active monsoon phase. Heavy rainfall has been forecast over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan over the next several days.
Uttarakhand is likely to experience very heavy rainfall on July 10, while East Uttar Pradesh may receive heavy to very heavy showers between July 10 and 12.
Delhi and the National Capital Region are expected to receive widespread rainfall between July 8 and 10, with isolated heavy showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds.
In eastern India, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim remain under an enhanced rainfall outlook. The IMD has warned of extremely heavy rainfall over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on July 8, while Bihar is likely to receive heavy rain through July 12.
The northeast is also expected to remain wet, with Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura forecast to receive widespread rainfall.
The IMD has also warned of thundersqualls with wind speeds of 50-70 kmph over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana and Karnataka, along with frequent lightning in several states.
The shifting rainfall pattern marks a transition in the monsoon's active phase, with the rain belt gradually migrating northward.
While central India is likely to see fewer showers after July 9, northern and eastern states should prepare for continued heavy rainfall, localized flooding, landslides in hilly regions and disruption due to thunderstorms over the coming week.
