UP Rajya Sabha polls: Can Akhilesh Yadav muster numbers for a third SP seat?

The Election Commission has announced elections for 10 Rajya Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, with the BJP comfortably placed to win seven and the Samajwadi Party two. The 10th seat, however, could once again test Akhilesh Yadav's ability to mobilise support beyond the SP's own legislative strength.

With two seats within the SP's reach, the key question is whether Yadav will make a serious bid for a third. To do so, he would need to bring around 16-17 additional MLAs into his camp.

Voting for the 10 seats is scheduled for October 16. The BJP is virtually assured of seven seats, while the SP is positioned to win two, leaving the final seat as the likely battleground. Both parties are expected to work on their numbers until the last moment.

The contest echoes the 2014 Rajya Sabha election, when the BJP snatched a seat the SP was expected to win. The BJP had fielded Sanjay Seth, a former SP leader and party treasurer, for the 10th seat. Seven SP MLAs cross-voted, paving the way for Seth's victory over SP nominee and former Uttar Pradesh chief secretary Alok Ranjan.

The political and numerical equations, however, have changed since then.

The term of BSP Rajya Sabha member Ramji Gautam is also coming to an end. Based on the current strength of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the SP is comfortably placed to win two seats.

The more difficult calculation begins with the third.

A candidate requires about 37.9 first-preference votes to win a Rajya Sabha seat. According to calculations within the SP, the party would have around 21 surplus votes after securing its two seats.

Yadav would therefore need another 16-17 votes to make a third candidate viable.

The SP is deliberating on whether to enter the contest and, if it does, how aggressively to pursue it. The decision will determine whether the final seat becomes a wider political contest or remains largely an exercise in numbers.

SP TURNS ITS ATTENTION TO BJP ALLIES

Unlike 2024, there is little expectation of significant cross-voting within the SP this time. The focus is therefore likely to shift towards BJP allies and other legislators whose political calculations could influence the contest.

Several MLAs from Om Prakash Rajbhar's Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) are reportedly in touch with the SP and are seeking tickets from the party for the 2027 Assembly election. If the SP decides to pursue a third Rajya Sabha seat, these legislators could become important to its calculations.

The SP is also expected to keep an eye on Muslim legislators of the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RJD), some of whom have previously been associated with the party.

Beyond these groups, the SP could explore support from other legislators whose political equations remain uncertain.

PALLAVI PATEL, MAHARAJI DEVI IN FOCUS

The Samajwadi Party’s calculations also bring several names into focus. One of them is Pallavi Patel, who won the Assembly election on an SP ticket but is no longer politically aligned with the party. The key question is whether she would support the SP if Akhilesh Yadav decides to field a third candidate.

Another name being closely watched is Maharaji Devi, wife of jailed former SP minister Gayatri Prasad Prajapati. She did not vote in the last Rajya Sabha election, and there is speculation that she may abstain again this time.

Their positions could become significant if the SP falls short of the required numbers and needs support beyond its own legislative strength.

The SP could also look towards BJP legislators who may be uncomfortable with the party's political equations or who may be weighing their own electoral interests ahead of the 2027 Assembly election.

However, persuading legislators from the ruling party or its allies to cross-vote would present a separate challenge.

ASSEMBLY STRENGTH HAS FALLEN

The effective strength of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly is currently 397, against its full strength of 403.

The SP, which once had 106 MLAs, currently has 97. More than half a dozen legislators have changed sides or moved away from the party after cross-voting in favour of the BJP.

This reduction is one of the main reasons the SP cannot independently claim a third Rajya Sabha seat.

The party would have to look beyond its own legislators and seek support among BJP allies and potentially within the BJP itself.

For Yadav, therefore, the third-seat contest would involve more than retaining the SP's existing votes. It would require putting together a broader coalition for a single election.

The BJP's numbers have also been affected by changes in the Assembly over the past year.

Four MLAs have died during this period, and three of them had voted for the BJP in the previous Rajya Sabha election.

The deaths of two BJP MLAs and one BSP MLA have therefore reduced by three the number of votes that were available to the BJP in the previous election.

The SP has also lost one vote following the death of one of its MLAs.

Another factor that could potentially benefit the SP is Mau MLA and Mukhtar Ansari's son Abbas Ansari. He was in jail during the previous Rajya Sabha election but is now out of jail, changing the calculations around his vote.

These changes have altered the arithmetic from 2024, although they have not fundamentally changed the BJP's advantage.

CAN AKHILESH REPEAT 2024 FIGHT?

The central question is whether Akhilesh Yadav wants to turn the final seat into a contest.

The SP has two seats within its reach. After securing them, the party is expected to have around 21 surplus votes. A third seat would require another 16-17 votes.

That puts the focus squarely on legislators outside the SP's current strength and on whether Yadav can build the numbers needed to make the third-seat bid viable.