Vijay govt to face first by-poll test in Tamil Nadu amid strained ties with Congress

The October 6 by-election to the Madurantakam and Dharapuram Assembly seats in Tamil Nadu will be the first electoral test for the three-month-old Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam government led by Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay. The Election Commission of India announced the by-polls after the resignation of the sitting MLAs from the two constituencies.

The contests carry added significance for the ruling TVK as it deals with coalition strains, opposition pressure and a delicate numbers position in the 234-member Assembly. They will also show whether the party fields the two former AIADMK legislators who resigned and joined the TVK, or chooses what it calls its "loyal" candidates.

The by-polls were announced for Madurantakam and Dharapuram following the resignation of Maragatham Kumaravel and P Sathyabama respectively. Both joined the TVK on the day they submitted their resignation letters to Assembly Speaker JCD Prabhakar and announced their decision to quit the AIADMK.

Tamil Nadu has a tradition of ruling parties enjoying a strong advantage in by-polls, but the TVK enters this contest amid a complex political situation.

The TVK formed the government in May as a post-poll coalition after falling short of a simple majority in the Assembly. It secured support from the Congress, VCK, IUML and the Left parties, while cross-voting by 22 AIADMK rebel legislators helped the Vijay government get a total of 144 "ayes" in the floor test.

The party now holds 107 seats and depends on external support to remain above the 118-seat simple majority mark.

At the same time, the TVK is facing internal strain with the Congress, which has threatened to reconsider its cabinet participation if its leader Rahul Gandhi is not accepted as the alliance's prime ministerial candidate for 2029. This comes amid growing voices within the TVK pitching for Vijay as the prime ministerial candidate. The CPI has also staged protests over inflation.

For the AIADMK, the by-polls are likely to be a personal battle as it tries to win back seats lost through the defections of its members. The DMK, on its part, may look to use any early administrative weaknesses to check the TVK's expansion.

Winning both seats is numerically important for the TVK as it would strengthen its position in the House and offer some cushion against shifts within the coalition.

The Madurantakam and Dharapuram seats are two of the seven vacancies in the Assembly. By-elections have not been announced for Tiruchirappalli East, surrendered by Vijay, and for Ambasamudram, Viralimalai, Perundurai and Karur after the resignation of AIADMK lawmakers.

With the notification, the Model Code of Conduct has come into force in the two constituencies.

According to the ECI schedule, nominations will be filed from September 9 to 16, scrutiny will take place on September 17, the last date for withdrawal is September 19, polling will be held on October 6 and votes will be counted on October 9.