Godzilla El Nino to be strongest ever, 100% chance it will last until early 2027
The World Meteorological Organisation has issued its strongest El Nino forecast yet, warning that the event could continue into February 2027 and raise extreme-weather risks.
El Nino has strengthened sharply across the tropical Pacific and is expected to become a very strong event later this year, with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) putting the likelihood of it continuing through February 2027 at 100%.
The warning goes beyond persistence.
WMO officials said the event could potentially become the strongest El Nino observed since modern monitoring began, if the current warming trend continues through the end of the year.
The latest WMO update, issued on September 3, marks the first time the organisation has expressed such a high level of confidence about an El Nino event.
The organisation added that exceptionally warm ocean conditions are supporting further strengthening of El Nino, with the climate impacts likely to continue well into 2027.
PACIFIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO BOIL
El Nino is a natural climate pattern involving unusually warm waters across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, accompanied by changes in the atmosphere.
Those changes can shift rainfall and temperature patterns far beyond the Pacific.
The ocean is already showing just how unusual this event is.
The Nino 3.4 region, a key area used to monitor El Nino, was 1.5°C warmer than average from May to July 2026 and 2°C above average in July.
Weekly values then rose to roughly 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average in late July and mid-August.
The heat below the surface is even more alarming.
In some parts of the tropical Pacific, subsurface temperatures were more than 8°C above average during July and early August.
Together, these conditions are giving El Nino room to strengthen further. So much so that WMO expects it to reach very strong intensity and peak towards the end of 2026.
The scale of the warming already puts the current event in rare territory. According to the WMO, it is one of only four El Nino events to fall into the “very strong” category in records dating back to 1950.
A PROBLEM FOR INDIA?
El Nino does not produce the same weather everywhere, and its strength alone cannot determine how severely a particular country will be affected.
For India, however, it is an important climate signal because El Nino can influence the southwest monsoon and bring dry conditions.
Historically, El Nino has often been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall, although the relationship is not absolute and other factors can alter the outcome.
India's 2026 monsoon was already forecast by the India Meteorological Department to be below normal, and it has been that so far.
In its updated May forecast, IMD projected seasonal rainfall at 90% of the long-period average, with a 60% probability of deficient rainfall.
Aligning with the grim forecasts, India ended August staring at 16% rainfall deficit.
If that wasn't bad enough, WMO's latest outlook also points to above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas during September-November, while warning that rainfall patterns will vary by region.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to develop, potentially modifying the usual effects of El Nino over India.
A CLIMATE WARNING
The effects could also extend beyond individual weather events.
WMO officials said El Nino is expected to leave a temporary “pulse” in global temperatures in its wake, raising the possibility that 2027 could become the warmest year on record.
The current record is held by 2024.
A very strong El Nino can increase the likelihood of extreme heat, drought and floods in different parts of the world, but it does not mean every region will experience the same effect.
The significance of the latest forecast is therefore less about one particular weather event and more about the duration of the climate disturbance.
With El Nino now expected to persist into early 2027, governments and weather agencies are being urged to strengthen preparedness for its potentially far-reaching effects.
WMO has said that national meteorological agencies are stepping up early-warning and preparedness efforts, particularly for climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy and water resources.
El Nino is a natural cycle. But as the world continues to experience record warmth, its arrival adds another layer of pressure to an already warmer climate.