Yemen nears civil war as Houthi push threatens Red Sea oil route

Yemen is moving closer to a return to civil war, with fresh fighting threatening a 2022 ceasefire and raising concerns over another disruption to a major global shipping route. The developments are also tied to the war involving Iran and efforts to keep oil moving out of the Gulf region.

At the centre of the latest tensions are the Houthis, the Iranian-backed rebel group in Yemen, and neighbouring Saudi Arabia. The Houthis are seeking to stop the Saudis from using a key alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could deepen Yemen's crisis and create wider risks for global shipping and oil supplies.

Yemen, home to more than 40 million people, is still scarred by a civil war that killed 150,000 people and pushed many others to the brink of famine in one of the world's largest humanitarian crises. A ceasefire between Yemen's internationally recognised government and a wider Saudi-backed coalition began in 2022, but that truce is now weakening.

Part of Yemen's importance lies in its position at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, alongside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. It is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes and has gained more importance as Iran continues to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Residents said on Thursday that the Houthis had entered the key Red Sea port of Mokha, which has been held by Yemen's internationally recognised government. If confirmed, that would put another vital entry point for food and aid at risk. If the Houthis take Mokha, it would also bring them a step closer to Bab el-Mandeb, adding to concerns over Red Sea shipping.

The fragile calm of the ceasefire held until weeks ago, when the Houthis tested a Saudi-led blockade of rebel-held areas. The Saudis then struck the international airport in the rebel-held capital, Sanaa, which the Houthis said was an attempt to stop a plane carrying Houthi leaders from returning after attending the funeral of Iran's late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Houthis were already opposed to Saudi support for Yemeni government forces, who the rebels say have carried out dozens of airstrikes against them this week after the Houthis attacked several oil facilities and utilities in Saudi Arabia, wounding dozens of people.

With the Iran war affecting movement through the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis now have another way to pressure Saudi Arabia by declaring a blockade against it and targeting its attempts to ship oil through the Red Sea. Tehran, which backs the Houthis, does not object to causing pain to the US-allied Saudis as it tries to limit oil shipments from the Gulf in line with its war aims.

Among Iran's armed proxies in the region, the Houthis have kept a lower profile than Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. That, along with their relative distance, has helped shield them from Israeli attack during the nearly three years since the war in Gaza began. However, the Houthis were quickly hit by US airstrikes when they tried to enter the regional conflict by targeting what they called Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea off Yemen's west coast. Those attacks later eased.

The Houthis have now returned with a different focus, targeting Saudi ships and other assets as the kingdom tries to move its oil to world markets through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. That Red Sea corridor usually carries goods worth USD 1 trillion a year. Ahmed Nagi, senior analyst on Yemen at the International Crisis Group, said the Houthis are "no longer just positioned on the northern part of the western coast; they now control a much larger stretch of the coastline, bringing them closer to the areas around Bab al-Mandeb".

The latest developments have raised fears inside Yemen of a wider return to civil war, while also adding to global concern over the safety of another key shipping lane. For oil consumers already worried about Iran's attacks on vessels trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz, the threat to the Red Sea route has become more serious as crude prices trade above USD 100 a barrel.

With PTI Inputs