Maharashtra | Sharad power, a teaser

It would be nothing short of an axial shift in Maharashtra politics if it comes through. The Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar), the rump group left by the split of the Ajit Pawar faction exactly three years ago, is now itself seen as veering closer to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Not exactly through an NCP reunion—the idea floated by some after Ajit’s demise. But through an independently growing proximity with other elements of the ruling coalition. Recent signs of warmth along those liaison lines have fuelled speculation about whether the party will back the renewed bid of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to have the proposed delimitation bill passed in Parliament, and even join it in power.

The tracks of diplomacy have been busy of late. Idle speculation, on for a while, got its first serious fillip when NCP (SCP) patriarch Sharad Pawar, an old master at cross-party communication, called on deputy chief minister and official Shiv Sena chief Eknath Shinde while visiting the assembly during the ongoing monsoon session. That strengthened when Jayant Patil, NCP (SCP) group leader in the assembly and former finance minister, met chief minister Devendra Fadnavis at his official residence in Mumbai. Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare, senior leaders of the Ajit faction, were also said to be present.

THE DELIMITATION BAIT

Around then, NCP (SCP) working president and Lok Sabha MP Supriya Sule, Pawar’s daughter, dropped the clearest hint of an entente when she indicated they were open to supporting the delimitation bill if it provided for a 50 per cent increase in Lok Sabha seats for all states. Like veteran punters, however, they also hedged. Sule downplayed her comments later. It was also claimed that Patil met Fadnavis to discuss the action against a municipal president in his constituency. Tatkare, too, has denied that he met Patil.

All this gathers tactical import due to the numbers game in Parliament. Hark back to the en bloc defection of six MPs from Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena to the Shinde faction. That was part of the Narendra Modi government’s effort to muster a two-third majority to push through the delimitation bill. The NCP (SCP) has eight MPs in the Lok Sabha and one in the Rajya Sabha. It has 10 MLAs in Maharashtra. Sources say all but a couple of them may be amenable to joining hands with the BJP.

That would leave the tripartite Maha Vikas Aghadi, already denuded of strength and riven with mistrust, fairly comatose. After a promising start in the 2024 general election, a poor showing in the assembly polls six months later had left it battling internal demons. If the NCP (SCP) supports the BJP, and that leads to it being accommodated in the Union and state governments, things would have turned 180 degrees. Much of that circle seems drawn. “We are willing to provide issue-based support to the governmentwe are also ready to consider any explicit offers from the BJP,” admits an NCP (SCP) functionary, helpfully. But contrasting views exist in the Pawar Sr camp, too. His grand-nephew and NCP (SCP) MLA Rohit Pawar has been scathing about how the BJP is gerrymandering constituencies in the guise of delimitation.

Sources say the NCP (SCP) may join the NDA without a merger with the official NCP, which is increasingly coming across as a divided house with two factions being at daggers drawn: one led by deputy CM and Ajit’s widow Sunetra Pawar and her elder son Parth Pawar, a Rajya Sabha MP; the other by the Praful Patel-Tatkare duo. A dissenter has in fact challenged the procedure by which Sunetra was elected party chief. Thirty months after the NCP split in July 2023, the two parties were in advanced negotiations for a reunion when Ajit died in a plane crash in January. The factionalism now skewers those plans.

“The question is, who will accept whose leadership,” says a senior NCP leader. Part of the unease goes back to personal equations: Sunetra was upset at being defeated by sister-in-law Sule from Baramati in 2024. Pawar Sr, on his part, is also responding to internal pressure in overcoming his reluctance to back the NDA—else, even that party can split, says a BJP leader. “Pawar has made such compromises in the past,” he adds, pointing to how the veteran leader had stayed away from voting in Parliament on contentious pieces of legislation like the triple talaq bill.

GAME OF THRONES

Not all of the pre-nuptial issues are settled, though. Sources say there could be some significant preconditions for the Pawar group aligning with the BJP: like a change of guard in the state, with Fadnavis being sent up the escalator to the Union cabinet to keep him out of state politics. Key facts: Shinde has always been plotting a return to the role; some BJP leaders are keen, too.

This is naturally too big a decision to come through in a hurry—unless Fadnavis eyes some advantage in it. The Ajit group also faces an existential threat from Shinde, who’s emerging as a Maratha leader in his own right. Shinde—who has roots in the NCP’s prime catchment area of western Maharashtra—is said to have made overtures to NCP (SCP) MLAs. A classic case of wheels turning within wheels.