Monsoon has gone silent: Will rains return to India or is the season over?
Rain has eased across peninsular India, but another arrival in the Bay of Bengal system could revive the rainy season across parts of the country. Here's what's happening.
The southwest monsoon has gone quiet over large parts of India just as the rainy season enters its final weeks.
Rainfall activity has eased particularly over peninsular India, leaving everyone with the obvious question.
Is the monsoon winding down, or is another spell of rain on the way?
For now, it is too early to call the season over.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on September 7 that rainfall activity is likely to remain subdued over peninsular India for the next seven days.
But this is a lull, not the formal withdrawal of the monsoon, as rain is still pouring in other parts of the country.
IS THE MONSOON STILL AROUND INDIA?
The slowdown is most noticeable across southern and peninsular India, with the IMD's latest outlook pointing to relatively limited rainfall there in the immediate future.
Elsewhere, however, the monsoon remains active.
A low-pressure area over central Uttar Pradesh and the monsoon trough are currently influencing weather over parts of north and central India.
The trough is extending from northwest India towards the Bay of Bengal, helping maintain rainfall over several regions.
And there is another reason not to write off the monsoon just yet.
IMD's extended-range forecast indicates that a fresh cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal regions in the coming days.
Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to develop over the same region, potentially increasing rainfall over eastern and adjoining northeastern parts of Peninsular India during the following week.
WHEN WILL IT RAIN AGAIN?
That means the next round of rain is likely to be uneven rather than a nationwide revival.
The IMD is already expecting fairly widespread rain over Chhattisgarh from September 8 to 12, Vidarbha from September 10 to 12 and Odisha from September 10 to 12.
So, while peninsular India may remain relatively dry for now, the weather pattern could become more active again as a new Bay of Bengal system takes shape.
September rain remains important, particularly for agriculture.
Below-normal rainfall during the month could affect crops and soil moisture ahead of the winter cropping season.
IS THE MONSOON ENDING?
The more accurate description of the southwest monsoon is that the rainy season is yet to check out of India.
A lull in rainfall does not mean the southwest monsoon has formally withdrawn.
The IMD considers withdrawal only after specific conditions are met, including five consecutive days without significant rainfall, the establishment of an anticyclone in the lower atmosphere and a marked fall in moisture.
In simpler words, the monsoon is slowing down, but it has not left India yet.
More rain is still possible, particularly if the expected Bay of Bengal system develops as forecast.
For now, the best way to describe the situation is that the monsoon has taken a break, but hasn't yet quit.