Sensex, Nifty today: Will markets crash again as US launches fresh attack on Iran?
GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 23,995.5 at around 7:50 am, indicating that the NSE Nifty50 could open above Wednesday's closing level of 23,882.05.
Stock markets are expected to open slightly higher on Thursday after suffering their biggest single-day fall in three months. However, the rebound may remain limited as investors continue to keep a close watch on the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, which has pushed crude oil prices close to the $80 per barrel mark.
GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 23,995.5 at around 7:50 am, indicating that the NSE Nifty50 could open above Wednesday's closing level of 23,882.05.
The expected recovery comes a day after the benchmark indices witnessed a sharp sell-off. Both the Sensex and the Nifty had plunged more than 2% on Wednesday after fresh comments from US President Donald Trump and renewed military action against Iran rattled global markets.
MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS KEEP MARKETS ON EDGE
Investor sentiment continues to remain fragile after the US military confirmed on Wednesday that it had launched fresh strikes on Iran aimed at keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for global shipping.
The military action came just hours after President Donald Trump declared that the interim agreement to end the conflict was "over", raising fears that the geopolitical situation could worsen further.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. Any disruption there could affect global crude oil supplies, making investors nervous across financial markets.
Reflecting these concerns, Brent crude was trading around $79.17 per barrel on Thursday morning, while WTI crude stood at $74.64 per barrel.
Higher crude oil prices are a concern for India because the country imports nearly 85% of its oil requirement. Costlier oil can increase inflation, widen the current account deficit, weaken the rupee and put pressure on corporate earnings.
FIIS CONTINUE TO BUY DESPITE MARKET FALL
Despite Wednesday's sharp correction, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net buyers for the sixth straight trading session.
According to provisional exchange data, FIIs bought shares worth Rs 1,963 crore on Wednesday, suggesting that overseas investors continue to see value in Indian equities despite rising global uncertainty.
Analysts believe sustained FII buying could provide some support to markets if geopolitical tensions do not escalate further.
EARNINGS SEASON TAKES CENTRE STAGE
Apart from global developments, investors will also turn their attention to the June-quarter earnings season, which begins on Thursday.
India's largest software exporter, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), will announce its quarterly results later in the day. The company's earnings and management commentary are expected to provide the first major clues on demand trends in the IT sector and set the tone for the broader earnings season.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term.
"Indian equities are expected to remain volatile in the near term as global risk sentiment has deteriorated following US President Donald Trump's comments on ending the ceasefire with Iran and withdrawing from the MoU. The developments have significantly heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with the India VIX surging nearly 30% to a three-week high."
He added that the rise in crude oil prices above $79 per barrel has renewed concerns over global energy supplies and is likely to keep investor sentiment fragile until there is greater clarity.
Khemka said that while geopolitical developments will remain a key trigger, TCS's results will be closely watched for early signals on the outlook for the IT sector and corporate earnings.
He added that investors will continue tracking developments between the US and Iran, along with the security of shipping routes, as these will determine the direction of crude oil prices and overall market sentiment.
KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
According to Bajaj Broking Research, the Nifty formed a strong bearish candle on Wednesday after breaking below the important support zone of 24,250 and testing 23,800 during intraday trade.
The brokerage said that if the index falls below 23,800, it could slide further towards the 23,500-23,600 range in the coming sessions.
However, if Nifty manages to hold above 23,800, it may consolidate between 23,800 and 24,350. The brokerage added that the immediate trend remains weak as long as the index stays below 24,350.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, also believes the short-term trend has turned negative.
"We are of the view that the short-term texture of the market has changed to negative from positive, and for day traders, selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy," he said.
According to Chouhan, the immediate resistance for Nifty is placed at 24,000 and 24,050. As long as the index remains below these levels, weakness may continue.
He said Nifty could retest its 50-day Simple Moving Average near 23,800, and a further decline may drag the index towards 23,600.
However, if Nifty moves above 24,050, sentiment could improve and the index may rebound towards the 24,150-24,200 range.
While markets are expected to recover slightly at the opening bell, analysts believe volatility is likely to remain high.
Investors will closely monitor three key factors throughout the day: fresh developments in the US-Iran conflict, movements in crude oil prices, and TCS's June-quarter earnings, which are expected to set the tone for the earnings season.
(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)
Stock markets are expected to open slightly higher on Thursday after suffering their biggest single-day fall in three months. However, the rebound may remain limited as investors continue to keep a close watch on the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, which has pushed crude oil prices close to the $80 per barrel mark.
GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 23,995.5 at around 7:50 am, indicating that the NSE Nifty50 could open above Wednesday's closing level of 23,882.05.
The expected recovery comes a day after the benchmark indices witnessed a sharp sell-off. Both the Sensex and the Nifty had plunged more than 2% on Wednesday after fresh comments from US President Donald Trump and renewed military action against Iran rattled global markets.
MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS KEEP MARKETS ON EDGE
Investor sentiment continues to remain fragile after the US military confirmed on Wednesday that it had launched fresh strikes on Iran aimed at keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for global shipping.
The military action came just hours after President Donald Trump declared that the interim agreement to end the conflict was "over", raising fears that the geopolitical situation could worsen further.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. Any disruption there could affect global crude oil supplies, making investors nervous across financial markets.
Reflecting these concerns, Brent crude was trading around $79.17 per barrel on Thursday morning, while WTI crude stood at $74.64 per barrel.
Higher crude oil prices are a concern for India because the country imports nearly 85% of its oil requirement. Costlier oil can increase inflation, widen the current account deficit, weaken the rupee and put pressure on corporate earnings.
FIIS CONTINUE TO BUY DESPITE MARKET FALL
Despite Wednesday's sharp correction, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net buyers for the sixth straight trading session.
According to provisional exchange data, FIIs bought shares worth Rs 1,963 crore on Wednesday, suggesting that overseas investors continue to see value in Indian equities despite rising global uncertainty.
Analysts believe sustained FII buying could provide some support to markets if geopolitical tensions do not escalate further.
EARNINGS SEASON TAKES CENTRE STAGE
Apart from global developments, investors will also turn their attention to the June-quarter earnings season, which begins on Thursday.
India's largest software exporter, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), will announce its quarterly results later in the day. The company's earnings and management commentary are expected to provide the first major clues on demand trends in the IT sector and set the tone for the broader earnings season.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term.
"Indian equities are expected to remain volatile in the near term as global risk sentiment has deteriorated following US President Donald Trump's comments on ending the ceasefire with Iran and withdrawing from the MoU. The developments have significantly heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with the India VIX surging nearly 30% to a three-week high."
He added that the rise in crude oil prices above $79 per barrel has renewed concerns over global energy supplies and is likely to keep investor sentiment fragile until there is greater clarity.
Khemka said that while geopolitical developments will remain a key trigger, TCS's results will be closely watched for early signals on the outlook for the IT sector and corporate earnings.
He added that investors will continue tracking developments between the US and Iran, along with the security of shipping routes, as these will determine the direction of crude oil prices and overall market sentiment.
KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
According to Bajaj Broking Research, the Nifty formed a strong bearish candle on Wednesday after breaking below the important support zone of 24,250 and testing 23,800 during intraday trade.
The brokerage said that if the index falls below 23,800, it could slide further towards the 23,500-23,600 range in the coming sessions.
However, if Nifty manages to hold above 23,800, it may consolidate between 23,800 and 24,350. The brokerage added that the immediate trend remains weak as long as the index stays below 24,350.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, also believes the short-term trend has turned negative.
"We are of the view that the short-term texture of the market has changed to negative from positive, and for day traders, selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy," he said.
According to Chouhan, the immediate resistance for Nifty is placed at 24,000 and 24,050. As long as the index remains below these levels, weakness may continue.
He said Nifty could retest its 50-day Simple Moving Average near 23,800, and a further decline may drag the index towards 23,600.
However, if Nifty moves above 24,050, sentiment could improve and the index may rebound towards the 24,150-24,200 range.
While markets are expected to recover slightly at the opening bell, analysts believe volatility is likely to remain high.
Investors will closely monitor three key factors throughout the day: fresh developments in the US-Iran conflict, movements in crude oil prices, and TCS's June-quarter earnings, which are expected to set the tone for the earnings season.
(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)
