Rajasthan | Flight time for Pilot?

If the leadership question in Rajasthan has been a cipher wrapped in a dilemma for the BJP, it presents a tense mystery novel for the Congress as well—and it’s time to turn the page. As Govind Singh Dotasra completed six years as state unit chief on July 14, the high command is back to the first eight squares of the chess board. It could move many pieces—and they can all move in unpredictable ways.

Status quo is an option, so is status quo ante. Neither is without risk. The questions to consider include equations among leaders, their competing ambitions, as well as caste. Dotasra, 61, has hit what’s regarded as the upper limit for a state chief’s tenure. But it’s not a mandatory one, and there can be an argument for a waiver. The Jat leader from Sikar is now a battle-tested war horse. Sticking to him would not upset former chief minister Ashok Gehlot, 75, whose lingering influence still sets the default atmosphere in the state Congress. But doing so would end up thwarting the ambitions of Gehlot’s arch-nemesis, Sachin Pilot, all over again.

Made state chief in the barrenness of 2014, Pilot spent years rejuvenating the party in the expectation that electoral success would be rewarded. Denied the CM’s chair in 2018, his tenure as state chief and deputy CM too ended on a rocky, abrupt cliff edge in July 2020. He was sacked after he rebelled, taking a flock of mutinous MLAs to a resort in Manesar.

There’s a distinct downside to extending the years-long pattern of denial to Pilot, still only 47 and popular beyond his Gujjar cohort. But there’s also Leader of Opposition Tika Ram Jully, 45, to consider—the Dalit face from Alwar has grown in stature.

The post holds an extra valency because many—including its incumbents—consider it a sureshot stepping stone to becoming CM. That’s not written in stone, yet every succession debate eventually becomes a shadow battle for the throne. In Rajasthan, that has delivered for the Congress perhaps its most fraught state unit. Witness the career of Dotasra, who had come in, as a Gehlot loyalist, to replace the sacked Pilot.

In 2022, he had backed Gehlot in the mass revolt by his loyalist MLAs to block Pilot from becoming CM. But the former minister has since transitioned to being an independent, influential power centre. He held things together through turbulence and was at the helm as the Congress gave the BJP a scare in 2024. Firming up the grassroots, his work in ensuring Congress supporters were not excluded during the ongoing Special Intensive Revision was reportedly appreciated by New Delhi.

SPOILT FOR CHOICE

Jully, too, has emerged as an articulate, effective floor leader, with growing command over issues. He is seen as close to senior leader Jitendra Singh, erstwhile ruler of Alwar, whose proximity to the Gandhi family enhances Jully’s standing in Delhi. During a visit to Pushkar last month, Rahul Gandhi praised both Dotasra and Jully, describing them as the “Jai-Veeru” pair from Sholay—the Jat leader’s rustic style complementing Jully’s policy approach while offering caste balance. Could there be a switch?

Barely a week later, in an unexpected media interaction, Gehlot revisited his MLAs’ 2022 rebellion, for which he had to forgo the post of Congress president. Describing his loyalists as party faithful, he said they were willing to accept any non-rebel as CM, and he was ready to move to the national stage but only bowed to circumstances. Many interpreted this as a pre-emptive attempt to block Pilot’s rehabilitation—at once signalling his own availability should the party look for a new national president.

The Gehlot-Pilot rivalry is in a tense ceasefire, laced with passive aggression. In their latest exchange, the ex-CM referred to Pilot as someone he had seen growing up, a subtle putdown; Pilot met that with characteristic restraint, wishing to not cloud the pre-coronation air. He may not be the party’s only choice, but he does retain an appeal that plays well in Rajasthan while also being among the state’s few nationally recognised faces. Fawning footfalls mark his rallies, fewer of late, as well as his social media spaces. With local body polls due soon, any change may be disruptive at this stage. The party has cause to procrastinate.